I’m writing from the train back from London after attending a Fulbright lecture video by US Special Climate Envoy John Kerry (for the zoomers, he’s a former MA Senator, 2004 presidential candidate, Secretary of State under Obama, this position is brand new under Biden, and every article you read will refer to him as Climate Czar) about the urgency of climate action. To be honest, it was about what I expected from a US official – he’s constrained in what he can say (e.g. closest he could get to saying “the real issue is consumption” was something about the excesses of robber baron capitalism). But, I found it was a very realistic mix of hope and urgency.

Kerry is a climate diplomat, and he’s the US negotiator at summits like COP27 which just wrapped up – but I learned that he also is constantly negotiating side deals with other countries and getting them to up their NDCs (nationally determined contributions – what each country commits to doing climate-wise, which they update yearly at COP). Main points of the talk:

• Biden/Kerry’s focus has been on getting more of the top 20 emitting countries (which are responsible for 80% of emissions) to commit to 1.5 C aligned targets. So far, 65% of global GDP is committed.
• Those commitments have been analyzed by the International Energy Agency, and they stack up to 1.7C of warming by 2050. That’s an improvement from the commitments coming out of COP26 last year which added up to 1.8C.
  • Obvious caveat to that is that we have to follow through (commitments =/= implemented policies).
  • Current trajectory is 2.6C (4.7F) based on actual policies because we aren’t doing enough things fast enough (yet).
• Major positive moves include Australia and Brazil electing new governments that are going to take the environment seriously, and Mexico, Indonesia, and India making bigger commitments than previously.
• To make 1.5C, 43% reductions are needed by 2030 and US via the Inflation Reduction Act is on track for our NDC of 50-52% by 2030, at least according to Kerry.
• Bottom line was that we know what to do, we know how to do it, we need to just do it (cue the just do it video) and that takes $$$ (which the US government position on seems to be that it needs to come more from private sector along with public funds, so if you know any investors feel free to tell them to get on it).

(These are my own opinions and do not represent the opinions of the Fulbright Program or the US Government.)

Photograph by David Tett.